The Enthusiasm Gap

Backdrop of History
Historically, the President’s party loses an average of 17 seats in House and 1 seat in the Senate during his first midterm election.   A historical exception was during President Bush’s first term in 2002, about one year after 9/11.


Enthusiasm Gap
The primary reason for the historical losses for a president in midterm elections is simply that the opposition becomes energized in reaction to his policies while his own party becomes complacent or upset that he didn’t go fast enough.   Midterm elections are decided based on energy, because turnout in the midterm elections is always lower than in a presidential year.    Public Policy Polling estimates that the enthusiasm gap is worth 7 net points for the Republicans over 2008 on the average.


Reasons for the Enthusiasm Gap
There are several major reasons that can be given for the enthusiasm gap in 2010.   I will detail a few below:


Opposition to Obama’s Aggressive Agenda
Although Obama has so far achieved less than he desired, his first term can already be described as transformative.  He has already enacted potentially lasting change, even though he was forced to compromise somewhat on his two biggest legislative accomplishments, the Stimulus and the Health-Care Overhaul.  Even with huge majorities in both houses of Congress, Obama couldn’t move the country as far as he wanted.  Voters, by and large, are greatly troubled with the major accomplishments of this President.  By a 39-34 margin (Rasmussen Reports), voters feel the Stimulus actually hurt the economy, and, by a 57-35 margin (Rasmussen Reports), voters want the Health-Care Bill repealed.  Additionally, those against these bills are strongly against them and that is the source of a lot of the passion you see from the opposition right now.


This Election is Not Historic Like 2008
There were many voters who were energized by the prospect of Obama being the first black President in 2008, including a lot of minority voters.  The Democrats are having a hard time translating that over to 2010.


Obama Has Been on the Unpopular Side of Several Polarizing Issues  
Opponents of Obama have been handed several "wedge" issues in the last six months.  These were the Arizona Immigration Law and the Ground Zero Mosque.  Obama came out strongly against the Arizona Law, which the public favors by a 59-32 margin (Rasmussen Reports).  Obama came out for the Ground Zero Mosque, or so the perception was, which the public opposes by a 62-25 margin (Rasmussen Reports).  Being against the vast majority of the American people on several very emotional issues has flamed passion in the opposition.


The Failure of the Economy to Improve
The economy has failed to improve as fast as most expected.  The President is trying to blame the economy on Former President Bush, a strategy that worked in the last election and a sentiment that many still agree with.  The problem is that the Stimulus Bill gave Obama ownership over the economy, for better or for worse.  He is now at least partially responsible for what happens in everyone's eyes and they are looking to him for answers as their President.


Obama’s Inability to Live Up to the Left’s Expectations
The enthusiasm gap is also attributable to the disenchantment of the Left.  Obama was seen by much of the Left as the dream candidate, and he made promises that they expected to be fulfilled.  He set such high expectations with the Left that, despite his ambitious domestic accomplishments, the “glow” of candidate Obama has worn off and disappointment has set in.

Virginia Politics
With no statewide elections in 2010, the biggest local (Southeast Virginia) race is in the 2nd Congressional District.  Glenn Nye, a relatively moderate Democrat, is going up against Scott Rigell, a conservative Republican.   The 2nd District encompasses Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hampton.  Polls indicate that Rigell has a slight lead in the contest.