The Senate

I am sorry that I haven't been able to post recently.  I had a personal problem that I needed to deal with this week.


We talked about the House, but what about the Senate?  The Senate has 37 seats up this year (a few of which are special elections).  Instead of breaking down every seat, I am going to focus on the big picture and some of the tight contests.  Most election observers are predicting a +8 Republican gain in the Senate (they need +10 to gain control).


Leans or Solid Democrat (8): HI, MD, VT, NY (2), CT, DE, OR
Toss Up (7): CA, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, WV
Leans or Solid Republican (22): AK, KY, MO, WI, FL, IN, LA, NH, NC, OH, AL, AR, ID, KS, OK, SD, AZ, GA, IA, ND, SC, UT


That comes out to Republican 22 - Democrat 8 - Toss Up 7, but only four current Democrat seats are in the Republican category.  This means that the real battle for control in the Senate is being fought in the Toss Up seats, all of which are current Democrat seats.  Democrats need to win two of the following seven Toss Up seats in order to regain control:


CA:  Boxer(D) holds about a 3-5 point lead over Fiorina(R) and looks likely to win.  Boxer's lead has been consistent throughout October, but the Fiorina camp contends that they have saved the bulk of their money for the final push.


CO:  Buck(R) holds about a 4 point lead over Bennet(D), but a lot of early votes have already been counted and this race has been close throughout October.


IL:  Kirk(R) holds about a 3-4 point lead over Gianoullias(D), and looks likely to win.  Gianoullias seems to have a ceiling of support.


NV: Angle(R) has a 4 point lead over Reid(D), the Senate Majority Leader.  She looks likely to win.  Early voting has started in NV.  Manny Pacquiao, in my opinion the best boxer on the planet behind Floyd Mayweather, just endorsed Reid on Friday. 


PA:  Toomey(R) holds about a 2-4 point lead over Sestak(D).  Sestak(D) has seen a small bump in recent weeks, but has trailed consistently for months.


WA:  Murray(D) and Rossi(R) are locked in a dead tie at the moment.  Early voting is prevalent in Washington as they have a large vote-by-mail system and many votes have already been counted.


WV:  Despite trailing most of the race, Manchin(D) has moved ahead of Raese(R) by 3 points.  The race switched directions when Manchin started running against Obama.  Manchin has the edge, but due to Obama's huge unpopularity in WV, the race is still too close to call.