Strategery

Democrat Strategy
This election Democrats are trying to localize every House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Election.  They don't want to focus on the national economy or President Obama's policies.  They want to stress the accomplishments of the incumbent for the "folks" back home.  Many wary incumbent Democrats have gone so far as to not mention the President in any campaign ads, and some are even touting their opposition to Obama's policies and their agreement with the Republican leadership.


Republican Strategy
The Republican strategy is the opposite of the Democrat's.  They want to nationalize everything and make this election a referendum on the President's policies, the poor economy, and the ballooning national debt.  Most Republicans are also campaigning on the repeal of Obama's health insurance bill.


The Current Majorities
Here is how the two Houses of Congress currently stack up.  The Democrats currently enjoy large majorities in both.


House: Democrats 255 - Republicans 178
All 435 seats are up for election this midterm, as always.


Senate: Democrats 59 - Republicans 41
Thirty-four seats are up for election this midterm.


The Generic Ballot
Perhaps the most important poll taken this election season is the generic ballot.  It asks simply whether someone will vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their Congressional district this year.  According to Rasmussen, Republicans lead 47 - 39 in the generic ballot among likely voters (Rasmussen Reports 10/10/10).  This is a 15 point swing from the 42 - 35 advantage the Democrats enjoyed on Inauguration Day 2009.


A lot of how you conduct likely voter polls, the most accurate type of poll for predicting elections, is in the likely voter screen.  Polling outfits, like Rasmussen, have algorithms for classifying someone as a likely voter, registered voter, or non-voter adult.  I like to only reference Rasmussen polling here because of their pinpoint accuracy in the past and my agreement with their polling methodology, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Gallup generic ballot poll that has been getting a lot of media attention.  Gallup has two likely voter screens that allow for high turnout or low turnout.  Remember that in a midterm election, energy is key and energy relates over into turnout.  The challenge for the party in power usually is to get their base voters energized and out to the polls, so a high turnout normally works in their favor.  The summary for Gallup's polling is below (Gallup 10/10/10):


Registered Voters:
Overall: Republican 47 - Democrat 44
Independents: Republican 46 - Democrat 36


Likely Voters (High Turnout):
Overall: Republican 53 - Democrat 41
Independents: Republican 54 - Democrat 33


Likely Voters (Low Turnout):
Overall: Republican 56 - Democrat 39
Independents: Republican 57 - Democrat 32


Given the enthusiasm gap, you shouldn't be shocked by these results.  Republican-leaning voters are more likely to turn out, and Independents are leaning towards Republicans in large numbers.  The higher the turnout, the more the results favor Democrats, because more of their less-energized people are turning out.  The lower the turnout, the more the results favor the Republicans, because the electorate is composed of more of their sure-to-vote, more-energized voters.  In any case, however, things look bad for the Democrats.  Unless these numbers change, Democrats are looking at definite losses in both Houses of Congress this year.  The questions is - how large will these losses be and where do the individual races stand?  I will discuss that next time.