Current House Projections

We are 15 days out from election day and I want to look at the projections for the House of Representatives.  There seems to be a growing consensus as to the most likely scenario:


Rasmussen Reports:  Republicans gain "55" seats
Cook Political Report:  Republicans gain "at least 40" seats
Sabato's Crystal Ball:  Republicans gain 47 seats
FiveThirtyEight:  Republicans gain 49 seats
RealClearPolitics:  Republicans gain 54 seats


These are all reputable organizations and their projections seem to be in alignment.  The Republicans are likely to pick-up around 50 seats in the 2010 Midterm Elections and re-take the House of Representatives (they need to gain 39 seats to take control).  This would mean that John Boehner would become the next Speaker of the House.  If anyone knows of any projections out there, you can post them below.


This is how I see this thing playing out.  If the Democrats are able to energize the voters and get their base out to vote in 15 days, then there is a chance they could only lose 30 seats and so narrowly retain the House.  If the Republicans stay energized and some breaks go there way, then a 70 seat gain for them is not out of the question.  In 1994 the Republicans gained 54 seats in route to a House takeover.  This election seems to be headed that same direction in 2010.  It is always very hard to poll and predict how hundreds of individual races will turn out, so these projections in the House rely somewhat on likely voter turnout models in the generic ballot and the size of the enthusiasm gap.  More on that in the future, but right now there is a lot of discussion on the Gallup generic ballot and whether or not it is accurate.  If their low-turnout scenario comes true, then that is one case where we could be looking at a 70 seat gain for the Republicans.  If Democrats can get their voters to wake up in the last two weeks, then a lower gain for the Republicans is possible.  It is possible that many of the Obama voters are not paying attention yet, but may become engaged late in the game.  But, the point is that it depends on turnout and enthusiasm.


Obama has the bully pulpit to speak from, but I have always felt that when a President campaigns too openly during the midterms that they run the risk of either coming across as angry, out-of-line, or too focused on politics instead of their actual job of governing.

Case in point is how upset he appeared this weekend in the press (picture at right).  I think it would benefit his candidates more if he quietly raised money and rallied the base, instead of making campaign appearances, especially since his very presence seems to energize the opposition.