CHRISTMAS - By The People & For The People by Ira White

This is an opinion piece written by a friend of mine.  He is a great writer and always has good perspectives:

Every year, there is controversy about Christmas expressions and displays in public places, recognition of the season as a national holiday, and equal representation for all "beliefs" including wicca and atheist. But to put it all in perspective…

Christmas is the biggest holiday across the globe and, though a Christian namesake, is uniquely celebrated by those of other faiths and persuasions due to its inclusiveness and inspiration to all people. And in a nation founded on principles of faith, it is no wonder that it has become a cherished aspect of our character and culture unlike any other season. Thanksgiving, another holiday of our religious origins, serves as a well-deserved doorway to that extended celebration.

To suggest that Christmas should not possess its exceptional place as a glowing festivity of the American landscape is simply a maligned attempt to artificially equalize its great inherent value, a contrived "redistribution of worth". But all rites are not created equal. Christmas transcends the whims of special interests and personal agendas, enduring on the hearts and minds of people, communities, and cities. If Christmas is to be marginalized, it would be by the collective choice of these and not by those who seek judicial tyranny over this joyous season.

Thankfully, our religious freedom sustains an overwhelming will of the American people for Christmas spirit and unity as a nation, and stands against the petty assaults of poor souls who choose to envy or indict the birthright of the most wonderful time of the year.

No, Christmas is not an establishment but a free exercise - the evolution of an epiphany over 2000 years old that embodies our traditions and perspectives. It has nothing to do with inequities and everything to do with inalienable rights. That is an endowment we will not forsake because, in every sense, saving Christmas is saving ourselves.

By God's grace, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

State Legislatures and Governorships

I have talked largely about House and Senate races, but in the next few days it will start to be clear how big the gains for the Republicans were in the Governorships and the State Legislatures.  As of now, it looks like the same wave hit those elections as well on the down ballot.


These are important for three reasons:


1.  These local offices don't get enough credit.  They are highly influential in our day-to-day lives.  It is easy to think nationally and miss the importance of state and local races.


2.  The Governor is able to give a campaign edge to their own party in the Presidential election.  This is key since Democrats lost the Governorship in several key swing states in 2009 and 2010:  Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio, among others.


3.  The Governor and State Legislatures work together to do the re-districting using the results of the 2010 census.  These shifts in the House district lines can actually significantly help the party that is in charge of setting the lines.  If one party controls both the Governorship and the State Legislature, then it is likely they will have a chance to pick up additional seats in the House in 2012.

So far results have unfolded largely as expected; GOP now controls House

In Senate Toss-Ups:
Toomey(R) wins over Sestak(D) in PA
Kirk(R) beats Gianollias(D) in IL
Manchin(D) beats Raese(R) in WV
Reid(D) beats Angle(R) in NV (big hold for Dems)
Boxer(D) beats Fiorina(R) in CA


Colorado and Washington look too close to call as of now, and they are the last two Toss-Ups.  We may not know about Washington until tomorrow sometime due to their vote-by-mail system. 


In the House it looks like Republicans will win at least 60 seats.  Two sitting Democrat committee chairman have been unseated, and a number of Democrats lost seemingly because of their Health-Car Bill votes.  Three incumbent Virginia Democrats, Boucher, Nye, and Perriello, have been defeated.  Connelly, a Democrat incumbent from Fairfax, is holding onto a 500 vote lead, and will likely win by the narrowest of margins.

Republicans Win the House of Representatives

Fox News has projected that Republicans will take control of the House.

McMahon and O'Donnell Fail to Win

Still no surprises so far tonight in the returns as Republican women Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell fail to pick up seats for the GOP.


Rubio(R) has won big in a three-way race in Florida.


There are at least four House seats in Virginia that are in serious danger of moving from Democrat to Republican.  Longtime incumbent Rick Boucher(D) from Southwest Virginia looks very likely to lose his seat.

Following Along

If you are following the election results tonight, the networks generally have great coverage but you can find a lot of information online and avoid waiting for the scrolling headlines.  The following two places are good non-partisan places to look:


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com


http://www.realclearpolitics.com

Rand Paul wins in Kentucky

As of 7:30pm, every race that has been called as expected.  The only semi-close race to be called so far was Rand Paul(R) over Jack Conway(D) in Kentucky.  This race was seen as a near toss-up by some as soon as a few weeks ago, but Paul must have won it big for the networks to call it this soon.  Rand Paul is the son of former Presidential candidate Ron Paul.

The Home Stretch

I hope that you will all vote tomorrow.


House Projections:
Cook Political Report - "Democrats are headed for losses of 50 to 60 seats or possibly more"
Sabato Crystal Ball - "a net gain of +55 seats for the GOP"
FiveThirtyEight - "Republicans won an average of 53 seats in our simulations"
RealClearPolitics - 67 seat gain for the Republicans


Note that these predictions are all higher than what I reported a few weeks ago.  The Republican takeover of the House is seen by almost all political insiders a near lock (they need 39 seats to take control).


Senate Projections:

Cook Political Report - "a net gain for Republicans of 6-8 seats"

Sabato Crystal Ball - "a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate"

FiveThirtyEight - 7 seat gain for the Republicans

RealClearPolitics - 8 seat gain for the Republicans

The broad consensus is that Republicans do not have enough to win the Senate (10 seat gain).  See the post below about the Senate toss-up races.

Again, this whole election goes back to the enthusiasm gap.  How big is it?  Some generic ballot polls have only a narrow advantage for the GOP, while others, like Gallup, are calling the Republican generic ballot lead so large that we are in "uncharted territory."  We will see tomorrow what actually happens and if this election is truly the transformative wave election some people are making it out to be.  What is clear in the polling breakdown is that the Democrats traditionally large advantage in the gender gap has been erased, the Independents are leaning heavily toward the Republicans, and that registered Republicans are more likely to vote this time than registered Democrats.  It would be a mistake, however, to assume that voters have a high opinion of the Republican party.  Voters are angry at Democrats and want to send a message to them, but they are actually not that excited about the Republicans as a whole.  They are hoping the Republicans prove themselves worthy of their trust.

I will be posting my thoughts periodically tomorrow night, if you care to check in.

Vote

Monday Night I will post final predictions for the House and Senate, as well as any last-minute thoughts I have on the midterms.  On Tuesday Night I will be posting periodic updates throughout the night as the results come in.  


I want to encourage everyone to vote on Tuesday, and to influence those that you know to do the same.  Don't be disenchanted with government and choose to stay home.  Don't think that it doesn't matter because your Congressperson isn't in a competitive race.  Don't think your vote doesn't count.  Know that voting is the grand expression of your liberty and your voice.

The Senate

I am sorry that I haven't been able to post recently.  I had a personal problem that I needed to deal with this week.


We talked about the House, but what about the Senate?  The Senate has 37 seats up this year (a few of which are special elections).  Instead of breaking down every seat, I am going to focus on the big picture and some of the tight contests.  Most election observers are predicting a +8 Republican gain in the Senate (they need +10 to gain control).


Leans or Solid Democrat (8): HI, MD, VT, NY (2), CT, DE, OR
Toss Up (7): CA, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, WV
Leans or Solid Republican (22): AK, KY, MO, WI, FL, IN, LA, NH, NC, OH, AL, AR, ID, KS, OK, SD, AZ, GA, IA, ND, SC, UT


That comes out to Republican 22 - Democrat 8 - Toss Up 7, but only four current Democrat seats are in the Republican category.  This means that the real battle for control in the Senate is being fought in the Toss Up seats, all of which are current Democrat seats.  Democrats need to win two of the following seven Toss Up seats in order to regain control:


CA:  Boxer(D) holds about a 3-5 point lead over Fiorina(R) and looks likely to win.  Boxer's lead has been consistent throughout October, but the Fiorina camp contends that they have saved the bulk of their money for the final push.


CO:  Buck(R) holds about a 4 point lead over Bennet(D), but a lot of early votes have already been counted and this race has been close throughout October.


IL:  Kirk(R) holds about a 3-4 point lead over Gianoullias(D), and looks likely to win.  Gianoullias seems to have a ceiling of support.


NV: Angle(R) has a 4 point lead over Reid(D), the Senate Majority Leader.  She looks likely to win.  Early voting has started in NV.  Manny Pacquiao, in my opinion the best boxer on the planet behind Floyd Mayweather, just endorsed Reid on Friday. 


PA:  Toomey(R) holds about a 2-4 point lead over Sestak(D).  Sestak(D) has seen a small bump in recent weeks, but has trailed consistently for months.


WA:  Murray(D) and Rossi(R) are locked in a dead tie at the moment.  Early voting is prevalent in Washington as they have a large vote-by-mail system and many votes have already been counted.


WV:  Despite trailing most of the race, Manchin(D) has moved ahead of Raese(R) by 3 points.  The race switched directions when Manchin started running against Obama.  Manchin has the edge, but due to Obama's huge unpopularity in WV, the race is still too close to call.

Time for Tea?

A lot of people have asked about the Tea Party - who are they, what do they believe, and do they see themselves as a third political party?  Tonight I will answer those questions.


The Tea Party movement is a loosely associated network of grassroots organizations across the country.  It has no leader and does not even have a centralized leadership structure.  There are several influential people in the Tea Party movement that often appear at their local rallies, including Rep. Dick Armey, Rep. Ron Paul, Sen. Jim DeMint, Gov. Sarah Palin, and Rep. Michelle Bachman, among others.  The Tea Party is a movement bound together by a shared ideology, not a party-like structure.


The Tea Party movement is primarily based around fiscal conservatism and the desire for a smaller Federal Government.  The big coming out for the Tea Party was on April 15th 2009, Tax Day, in protest of high taxes and Federal Government deficits.  The name is in reference to the Boston Tea Party rally that protested the oppressive rule of England on its American colonies (high taxes, no representation, etc).  Tea Party identifiers are critical of past Democratic and Republican excesses in government, although they see the past fiscal woes of Republicans to be far less severe than that of the Democrats.  While Tea Party members may often be foreign policy or social conservatives, that is not the focus of the movement.  Depending on which poll you check, around 25% to 35% of Americans identify themselves with the Tea Party movement and around 60% do not.  This is an especially high number for an interest group, which the Tea Party essentially is, and even more impressive considering the fact that they have gotten less than positive press coverage since their inception.  Several polls show about equal favorable-unfavorable ratings for the Tea Party.  One poll finds that 48% of voters say they are closer in beliefs to the Tea Party and 44% of voters say they are closer in beliefs to President Obama (Rasmussen), and another poll shows that Tea Party backers are demographically representative of the American population at large (Gallup).  The verdict is that this is not just some fringe group, and that the Tea Party has considerable influence.


But, what power does the Tea Party have and will they start a third party?  Polls show that the Tea Party would basically split the Republicans in two if they were to become a national third party, and thereby guarantee Democrat victories.  Tea Party backers know this and do not desire to be a third party.  The goal of the Tea Party movement is to reform the Republican party from within.  That is their true power.  They have the ability to influence which Republicans get nominated and elected and which policies Republicans in Washington will adopt.  They can even drive more moderate Republicans to the right, as was evidenced in the case of John McCain this year.  They are very motivated voters who will definitely show up to the polls.  This also makes them influential in Midterm Election years like 2010 where turnout is lower than in Presidential years like 2008.

Current House Projections

We are 15 days out from election day and I want to look at the projections for the House of Representatives.  There seems to be a growing consensus as to the most likely scenario:


Rasmussen Reports:  Republicans gain "55" seats
Cook Political Report:  Republicans gain "at least 40" seats
Sabato's Crystal Ball:  Republicans gain 47 seats
FiveThirtyEight:  Republicans gain 49 seats
RealClearPolitics:  Republicans gain 54 seats


These are all reputable organizations and their projections seem to be in alignment.  The Republicans are likely to pick-up around 50 seats in the 2010 Midterm Elections and re-take the House of Representatives (they need to gain 39 seats to take control).  This would mean that John Boehner would become the next Speaker of the House.  If anyone knows of any projections out there, you can post them below.


This is how I see this thing playing out.  If the Democrats are able to energize the voters and get their base out to vote in 15 days, then there is a chance they could only lose 30 seats and so narrowly retain the House.  If the Republicans stay energized and some breaks go there way, then a 70 seat gain for them is not out of the question.  In 1994 the Republicans gained 54 seats in route to a House takeover.  This election seems to be headed that same direction in 2010.  It is always very hard to poll and predict how hundreds of individual races will turn out, so these projections in the House rely somewhat on likely voter turnout models in the generic ballot and the size of the enthusiasm gap.  More on that in the future, but right now there is a lot of discussion on the Gallup generic ballot and whether or not it is accurate.  If their low-turnout scenario comes true, then that is one case where we could be looking at a 70 seat gain for the Republicans.  If Democrats can get their voters to wake up in the last two weeks, then a lower gain for the Republicans is possible.  It is possible that many of the Obama voters are not paying attention yet, but may become engaged late in the game.  But, the point is that it depends on turnout and enthusiasm.


Obama has the bully pulpit to speak from, but I have always felt that when a President campaigns too openly during the midterms that they run the risk of either coming across as angry, out-of-line, or too focused on politics instead of their actual job of governing.

Case in point is how upset he appeared this weekend in the press (picture at right).  I think it would benefit his candidates more if he quietly raised money and rallied the base, instead of making campaign appearances, especially since his very presence seems to energize the opposition.

Strategery

Democrat Strategy
This election Democrats are trying to localize every House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Election.  They don't want to focus on the national economy or President Obama's policies.  They want to stress the accomplishments of the incumbent for the "folks" back home.  Many wary incumbent Democrats have gone so far as to not mention the President in any campaign ads, and some are even touting their opposition to Obama's policies and their agreement with the Republican leadership.


Republican Strategy
The Republican strategy is the opposite of the Democrat's.  They want to nationalize everything and make this election a referendum on the President's policies, the poor economy, and the ballooning national debt.  Most Republicans are also campaigning on the repeal of Obama's health insurance bill.


The Current Majorities
Here is how the two Houses of Congress currently stack up.  The Democrats currently enjoy large majorities in both.


House: Democrats 255 - Republicans 178
All 435 seats are up for election this midterm, as always.


Senate: Democrats 59 - Republicans 41
Thirty-four seats are up for election this midterm.


The Generic Ballot
Perhaps the most important poll taken this election season is the generic ballot.  It asks simply whether someone will vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their Congressional district this year.  According to Rasmussen, Republicans lead 47 - 39 in the generic ballot among likely voters (Rasmussen Reports 10/10/10).  This is a 15 point swing from the 42 - 35 advantage the Democrats enjoyed on Inauguration Day 2009.


A lot of how you conduct likely voter polls, the most accurate type of poll for predicting elections, is in the likely voter screen.  Polling outfits, like Rasmussen, have algorithms for classifying someone as a likely voter, registered voter, or non-voter adult.  I like to only reference Rasmussen polling here because of their pinpoint accuracy in the past and my agreement with their polling methodology, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Gallup generic ballot poll that has been getting a lot of media attention.  Gallup has two likely voter screens that allow for high turnout or low turnout.  Remember that in a midterm election, energy is key and energy relates over into turnout.  The challenge for the party in power usually is to get their base voters energized and out to the polls, so a high turnout normally works in their favor.  The summary for Gallup's polling is below (Gallup 10/10/10):


Registered Voters:
Overall: Republican 47 - Democrat 44
Independents: Republican 46 - Democrat 36


Likely Voters (High Turnout):
Overall: Republican 53 - Democrat 41
Independents: Republican 54 - Democrat 33


Likely Voters (Low Turnout):
Overall: Republican 56 - Democrat 39
Independents: Republican 57 - Democrat 32


Given the enthusiasm gap, you shouldn't be shocked by these results.  Republican-leaning voters are more likely to turn out, and Independents are leaning towards Republicans in large numbers.  The higher the turnout, the more the results favor Democrats, because more of their less-energized people are turning out.  The lower the turnout, the more the results favor the Republicans, because the electorate is composed of more of their sure-to-vote, more-energized voters.  In any case, however, things look bad for the Democrats.  Unless these numbers change, Democrats are looking at definite losses in both Houses of Congress this year.  The questions is - how large will these losses be and where do the individual races stand?  I will discuss that next time.

The Enthusiasm Gap

Backdrop of History
Historically, the President’s party loses an average of 17 seats in House and 1 seat in the Senate during his first midterm election.   A historical exception was during President Bush’s first term in 2002, about one year after 9/11.


Enthusiasm Gap
The primary reason for the historical losses for a president in midterm elections is simply that the opposition becomes energized in reaction to his policies while his own party becomes complacent or upset that he didn’t go fast enough.   Midterm elections are decided based on energy, because turnout in the midterm elections is always lower than in a presidential year.    Public Policy Polling estimates that the enthusiasm gap is worth 7 net points for the Republicans over 2008 on the average.


Reasons for the Enthusiasm Gap
There are several major reasons that can be given for the enthusiasm gap in 2010.   I will detail a few below:


Opposition to Obama’s Aggressive Agenda
Although Obama has so far achieved less than he desired, his first term can already be described as transformative.  He has already enacted potentially lasting change, even though he was forced to compromise somewhat on his two biggest legislative accomplishments, the Stimulus and the Health-Care Overhaul.  Even with huge majorities in both houses of Congress, Obama couldn’t move the country as far as he wanted.  Voters, by and large, are greatly troubled with the major accomplishments of this President.  By a 39-34 margin (Rasmussen Reports), voters feel the Stimulus actually hurt the economy, and, by a 57-35 margin (Rasmussen Reports), voters want the Health-Care Bill repealed.  Additionally, those against these bills are strongly against them and that is the source of a lot of the passion you see from the opposition right now.


This Election is Not Historic Like 2008
There were many voters who were energized by the prospect of Obama being the first black President in 2008, including a lot of minority voters.  The Democrats are having a hard time translating that over to 2010.


Obama Has Been on the Unpopular Side of Several Polarizing Issues  
Opponents of Obama have been handed several "wedge" issues in the last six months.  These were the Arizona Immigration Law and the Ground Zero Mosque.  Obama came out strongly against the Arizona Law, which the public favors by a 59-32 margin (Rasmussen Reports).  Obama came out for the Ground Zero Mosque, or so the perception was, which the public opposes by a 62-25 margin (Rasmussen Reports).  Being against the vast majority of the American people on several very emotional issues has flamed passion in the opposition.


The Failure of the Economy to Improve
The economy has failed to improve as fast as most expected.  The President is trying to blame the economy on Former President Bush, a strategy that worked in the last election and a sentiment that many still agree with.  The problem is that the Stimulus Bill gave Obama ownership over the economy, for better or for worse.  He is now at least partially responsible for what happens in everyone's eyes and they are looking to him for answers as their President.


Obama’s Inability to Live Up to the Left’s Expectations
The enthusiasm gap is also attributable to the disenchantment of the Left.  Obama was seen by much of the Left as the dream candidate, and he made promises that they expected to be fulfilled.  He set such high expectations with the Left that, despite his ambitious domestic accomplishments, the “glow” of candidate Obama has worn off and disappointment has set in.

Virginia Politics
With no statewide elections in 2010, the biggest local (Southeast Virginia) race is in the 2nd Congressional District.  Glenn Nye, a relatively moderate Democrat, is going up against Scott Rigell, a conservative Republican.   The 2nd District encompasses Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk and Hampton.  Polls indicate that Rigell has a slight lead in the contest.