House Projections:
Cook Political Report - "Democrats are headed for losses of 50 to 60 seats or possibly more"
Sabato Crystal Ball - "a net gain of +55 seats for the GOP"
FiveThirtyEight - "Republicans won an average of 53 seats in our simulations"
RealClearPolitics - 67 seat gain for the Republicans
Note that these predictions are all higher than what I reported a few weeks ago. The Republican takeover of the House is seen by almost all political insiders a near lock (they need 39 seats to take control).
Senate Projections:
Cook Political Report - "a net gain for Republicans of 6-8 seats"
Sabato Crystal Ball - "a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate"
FiveThirtyEight - 7 seat gain for the Republicans
RealClearPolitics - 8 seat gain for the Republicans
The broad consensus is that Republicans do not have enough to win the Senate (10 seat gain). See the post below about the Senate toss-up races.
Again, this whole election goes back to the enthusiasm gap. How big is it? Some generic ballot polls have only a narrow advantage for the GOP, while others, like Gallup, are calling the Republican generic ballot lead so large that we are in "uncharted territory." We will see tomorrow what actually happens and if this election is truly the transformative wave election some people are making it out to be. What is clear in the polling breakdown is that the Democrats traditionally large advantage in the gender gap has been erased, the Independents are leaning heavily toward the Republicans, and that registered Republicans are more likely to vote this time than registered Democrats. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that voters have a high opinion of the Republican party. Voters are angry at Democrats and want to send a message to them, but they are actually not that excited about the Republicans as a whole. They are hoping the Republicans prove themselves worthy of their trust.
I will be posting my thoughts periodically tomorrow night, if you care to check in.
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